What Bitcoin Bear Market? BTC Price Following Old Halving Cycles Closely

Bitcoin continues to follow its halving cycle in a classic style compared to 2013 and 2017, as indicated by the latest BTC price metrics.

BTC price is on track to seal new all-time highs, according to new data published by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode on April 11th.

With BTC/USD up over 70% in 2023 and far from its lows of $15,600 in November 2022, analysts are already considering the role of the upcoming block reward halving next year.

Set to cut the amount of BTC that miners "mint" per block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, the next halving represents a decrease in issuance exactly like the ones that preceded it.

As a result, bets are increasing on the impact on Bitcoin's price performance, much like in previous halvings, with the event itself acting as a springboard for all-time highs.

A look at Glassnode's figures underscores the similarities of the current halving cycle with previous ones. Despite comparatively moderate gains in percentage terms, the BTC/USD pair is now trending upwards after what increasingly looks like a bottoming out of a bear market.

Tracking price action since its last all-time high also places this cycle firmly within historical context.

Meanwhile, in an analysis last month, data source Ecoinometrics offered additional insights on recent performance.

The new all-time highs are also due, it agreed, to a macroeconomic recession that distorts the roadmap.

"Bitcoin's price suggests that it has bottomed out, but with the impending global recession, it is premature to assume so," it reasoned.

"Economic uncertainty will increase demand for safe-haven assets, but Bitcoin is still trading as a risk asset."

Only up to $180,000?

As reported by Cointelegraph, the belief that the 2024 halving cycle will continue the good times has not gone anywhere during the recent bear market.

Filbfilb, co-founder of the trading suite DecenTrader, recently reaffirmed his conviction that Bitcoin's all-time high in the next cycle will come in 2025 and see a BTC price around $180,000.

He noted that as time goes on, the gains in Bitcoin's price will see a "diminishing effect" - smaller comparative gains in percentage terms with each cycle.